Close To Being Right

In the wake of Osama Bin Laden’s death I wanted to ask a question that might upset and depress people.  Did he win?

Back in 1997 ABC news showed a short report about a group that would later become known as Al Qaeda.  The report profiles a then less infamous Bin Laden; “this gorilla warrior operates as a CEO, funding and supporting violence against the west  & its allies. Private planes, Swiss bank accounts, he gives orders via the Internet and is as good a capitalist as he is a terrorist”.

It was clear back then that he was the moneyman, probably because he used his sizable inheritance to fund terrorist projects.   When we think about Bin Laden’s aims we think of mayhem and bloodshed but when he spoke about his motivations he would always talk about finance.  In October 2001 he told Al Jazeera “The losses on Wall Street (after 9/11) amounted to 16% and they said that this was a record loss that had never happened since the markets opened over 130 years ago.  Such a collapse has never happened before.  The capital in circulation within this market amounts to $4 trillion.  If we multiply 16% by $4 trillion to find out the losses that their shares suffered, we find that it is $640 billion.  This is what they lost in one hour.   The gross national income in the US is $20 billion. On the first week (after 9/11) they did not work at all because of the psychological shock.  Even to this very day some people do not go to work because of the enormous shock.”  It is clear from this interview that Bin Laden cares profoundly about money and the financial damage he has done to the USA.  He concludes, “More then $1 trillion in losses resulted from these successful attacks”.    What Bin Laden wanted most was that his actions were as expensive as they could possibly be. 

In 2004 he recorded a video boasting that “We are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy, as for the economic deficit, it has reached astronomical numbers estimated to total more then a trillion dollar. The real loser is you. It’s the American people and their economy.”  Bin Laden did not count body bags; he counted coins.  Since 9/11 the historically high US defence budget has doubled and now amounts to over $1 trillion a year.   America spends more money on weapons then the next 15 biggest military powers combined.    On the morning of September the 11^th 2001 the U.S national debt was just under $6 trillion, it is now well over $14 trillion and rising.  Both the USA and UK, (having gone to war in both Afghanistan & Iraq following 9/11) are now in more debt then at any time in their history and are facing drastic spending cuts to public services as a result, thus giving Bin Laden victory on his own terms.

Osama Bin Laden did not force America to bail out failing banks or cut taxes on high earners but he didn’t force them to start two wars either.  He did not force American to declare an unwinnable war against a six-letter noun.  What could have been an international criminal investigation became long-winded occupations. The killing of Bin Laden by a small group of elite solders in a small 40-minute period perfectly undermined the claim that the invasion of Afghanistan was necessary to protect civilians on US & UK soil.  By ‘going to war’ against a small group of unpopular terrorists we gave them the gift of importance, giving Bin Laden victory on our terms. The toxic legacy of terrorism in the 21^st century was not inspired by Bin Laden’s grainy home videos but by illegal invasions and illegal interrogation techniques adopted by the West in response to 9/11  If you really think we’ve won the ‘war on terror’ ask yourself if a society that’s too scared to allow a drink on a plane or a photo to be taken at a train station, is gripped by something called terror.

However while Bin Laden’s tactics may have helped push America & Britain into unprecedented levels of debt, terrorism has done nothing for Muslims and the Middle East in 15 years compared to what peaceful protest achieved in the first 15 weeks of 2011. Similarly despite the nine-year occupation of Afghanistan, last years shambolic elections proved that western powers could not guarantee   democracy.  The catalogue of uprisings in the Arab world this year has proved that the interests of people in the Middle East are far best served by peaceful protest then they are by extremist violence or western occupation. 

The West now faces a choice as to how it responds to inevitable acts of terrorism. It will always be a tempting option for our leaders to reassert their authority by giving weight to the world’s least sane people.  However if wish to live in a world that is not shaped by the threats of violent zealots we have to learn to carry on.  To treat terrorist like criminals and nothing more because they only really win when an act of terror changes the way we live.   Because the ‘war on terror’ was sold as a war, it ends like one too, with no real winners.