Nicholas Barrett

The morning after America rejected the Obama administration in the midterm elections a humble president stated that “we were in such a hurry to get things done that we didn’t change how things got done”.   In that quote in capsulated that nationwide apathy that saw his base stay at home.  Gone were the passionate crowds holding the “change we can believe in” signs.  Jobs had been too slow to materialise and economic growth to slow to be appreciated.  So in an election with foreclosures at the top of the agenda Obama, like many so many Americans before him, lost the house.

If you’ve been following politics across the pond then you will know why Obama’s popularity had declined.  He compromised with republicans on the big issues and failed to promote his achievements and live up to the hype of his 2008 champagne.  The media has done a good job of covering this so all that’s left to ask is what will happen next?

The future is of course impossible to predict but if history is any indication the parallels of the Clinton administration are worth looking into.  In 1992 bill Clinton ran on a platform of government reform.  He promised to change the health care system, create jobs and lower taxes on the middle class.   However two week s prior to Clinton’s inauguration he was visited by leading encomiasts who told him that his reforms were impossible.  George Bush (senior) had left the nation almost $300billion in debt and if Clinton wanted to borrow any more it would panic the markets and lead the crisis.  If he wanted to pay for the reforms he had promised he would have to abandon his tax cuts for the middle class.   When Clinton faced up to the midterms in 1994 the middle classes who had voted for him felt betrayed and switched sides, the republicans won both houses in a landslide. 

Having lost both houses Clinton was now unable to make progress with the reform he wanted despite sacrificing the tax cuts to pay for them, not only had he lost his support but he had also lost the power to win them back.  Now does that sound at all familiar?  Instead of perusing the reform he had promised Clinton became a populist, to save his presidency he hired marketing companies to phone thousands of household’s across America and ask what they would like from government.  His political ideals were shelved and he pandered to the desires of swing voters.  Computer chips in TV’s would stop children from watching pornography and school buses would have mobile phones onboard but health care was dropped.    Bill Clinton went on to govern for another six years but he did so at the expense of his ideology. 

So are Obama’s ambitions of real change dead?  Can he win in 2012 without selling out his principles?  Yes he can.  If you want to know how then you have to look back not to 1996 but to 1936 and to the administration of Franklin D Roosevelt.   In 2010 the Republican Party had been allowed to frame the debate, the talking point is how big the government should be.  If Obama attempts to sell himself as a man of small government he will further alienate his base and gain almost no support and if he tries to go the other way the republican will filibuster him.  Basically he can’t win.

In 1936 Roosevelt was having similar problems and this was eight years into the great depression, what Roosevelt did won him the election buy a huge majority.  He changed the debate, instead of talking about his failing in office he talked about the character and motivation of his rivals.  He repeatedly told the country that the republicans only stood for “business and financial monopoly, speculation and reckless banking”.  Luckily for Obama the same is true today; I challenge any reader to present me with a single GOP policy that does not work favourably for the richest 1% of Americans.  They want to drop taxes on the rich, ignore climate change and reverse health care reform, they work not for the electorate but for their corporate donors and highlighting this could be the saviour of president Obama.    If it is he can regain the house in 2012 and use it to ‘change how things get done’.